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Joker Wild Poker,
5K Jackpot
In the November 1999 issue of Strictly Slots, Bob Dancer's Beginner's Column was dedicated to Atlantic City Joker Wild Poker with the five of a kind (5K) jackpot. With the best non-progressive offering a meager return of only 97.19 percent, this is really not a game worth talking about. But when you throw the progressive into the picture, things start to change.

Just to bring everyone up to speed, this is a two pair or better game which has the following pay table:

2P = 1, 3K = 2, ST = 4, FL = 5, FH = 8, 4K = 16, SF = 100, 5K = 800+

These returns are per coin, assuming a maximum five coins played. A straight flush is any straight flush or royal flush, with or without the Joker. There are other versions of this game, but this is the "best" one. Do not even consider playing anything else, even if it has a progressive.

Some Basics About the Game
1) Five of a Kind and Straight Flush Frequencies
You will hit a 5K approximately once every 11,000 hands, and a straight flush approximately once every 1,200 hands. Compare these to typical Jacks or Better games (about 40,000-45,000 [for the royal] and 9,000 hands, respectively). I remember someone told me that they play the game because "you get the same top payout and twice as much for a straight flush, and they happen a lot more." Correct enough. Higher jackpot frequencies are the number one reason why this is the most popular video poker game in Atlantic City with both players and casinos.

2) Coming Up Empty
On average, 70 percent of all hands played will result in a loss. Compare that to 55 percent for most Jacks or Better games.

3) Extremely High Variance
The reduced frequency of the jackpot combined with its high initial value give this game a considerably higher variance (70.4 units squared for starters if you play at reset—124 units squared if you wait until the game reaches 100 percent) than traditional 9/6 Jacks (about 19.5 units squared). As a matter of fact, between 5K jackpots, you can expect to lose about 10 cents for every dollar wagered! On the days where this jackpot is elusive, your money will become casino property fast.

4) Very Difficult Strategy
Penalty cards combined with a host of non-intuitive holds make this game a nightmare, even for a more experienced player.

5) Another Miscellaneous Tidbit
You will receive the Joker in your initial deal an average of once every 10.6 hands. This is not a difficult number to calculate (53 cards in the deck/five cards per hand = 10.6), but most people feel they "deserve" to be dealt the Joker much more often than this.

The Progressives
There are many different kinds of progressives, but we are only going to seriously discuss a straight 5K progressive. The jackpot starts at a base, also known as the reset amount, and increases with each hand played until someone hits the 5K. Then the process begins anew. I would never play this game at less than 100 percent. You, of course, may play the game at reset if you like—many people do. But if you are concerned with winning in the long run, wait until the meter gets high enough.

Unlike progressives in other games, no strategy changes are required. The 5K jackpot, even at reset, is very high. The frequency of hitting a 5K hardly changes as the jackpot gets larger. This is definitely a plus with a game that already has a difficult strategy.

It takes a five coin jackpot of 5,542 coins for the game to be break-even ($1,385.50 when playing for quarters) without considering the amount added by the slot club. A good approximation is for every 100 coin increase to the jackpot, the return increases by approximately 0.18 percent, so if you wanted to play at 101 percent, the jackpot would have to increase by another 550 coins.

What are your chances of finding a desirable progressive (i.e. one set at 100 percent or greater)? Most progressives have a meter movement of 1 percent. That means 1 percent of the total bet is added to the meter. If you are playing dollars, then every $5 bet would increase the meter by five cents. In a 5K cycle of 11,000 hands, the jackpot would increase by 11,000 * 5 cents = $550. That means someone/somebody would have to go 31,000 hands without hitting a 5K before the machine would be playable. The chances of that happening are about 6 percent. If you are fortunate enough to find a machine with a 2 percent meter, then your chances of finding a machine with a payback exceeding 100 percent do not double, they more than quadruple to 24.4 percent! This doesn't mean that 24.4 percent of the games at any one time will return more than 100 percent. What it means is that 24.4 percent of the machines with 2 percent meters will exceed 100 percent before they are hit.
Before attacking these machines, there are two other factors we must consider:

1) Bankroll
Even with a 101 percent overall payback, you will run a 15 percent chance of going through a whole lot of money. Can you say "Capitalization"?

2) Linked versus unlinked
Are the progressives linked or unlinked? If they are linked, this will increase your variance, as you do not have exclusivity to the jackpot (unless you monopolize the bank with team play). I know a pro who went through a $100K bankroll playing $1 progressives at no less than 101 percent payback! If they are unlinked, you are guaranteed of hitting the jackpot (rather than have somebody else get it) if you can stay awake and if you don't run out of time, money or enthusiasm first.

Other Progressives
These are mentioned only for discussion. All machines described have the same base pay table as mentioned in the first section of the article.

1) Progressive jackpot for five Aces
The five Aces jackpot starts at 12,500 coins, or 2,500 for each coin wagered. Even if the jackpot is desirable, you are putting your bankroll at serious risk in hopes of getting a particular 5K. Assuming no strategy variations, you'll hit it once every 143,000 hands. That's a lot of play at a game that is otherwise a big cash hog.

2) Triple Play
Triple Play Joker Wild Poker in quarters pays $50,000+ if you get five Aces on all three paylines. You will be dealt five Aces once every 2,869,865 hands on average. Playing 500 hands an hour, this will take you 5,700 hours—which is about three years of 40-hour per week play. Enough said!

Conclusion
Joker Wild Poker is the most difficult and frustrating video poker game to play on the Atlantic City scene, although it can be profitable if you have the right personality. However, unless you are a very serious video poker player who does not mind high variance, I would recommend that you find another game and let the other tourists try their luck at this one.

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