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Index . Behind the Scenes . The Ups and Downs of Video Poker
Winner's Spotlight . Up Front . As Far As I'm Concerned

The Ups and Downs of Video Poker
Continued...


As for the money won and lost for the six categories, here is how it went:

1. Deuces Wild: minus $2,678
2. Loose Deuces, etc.: plus $ 4,075
3. All-American Poker: minus $ 4,726
4. Double Bonus: minus $1,708
5. East Coast VP: minus $1,832
6. Targets of opportunity: plus $923

All the win/loss figures do not include cashback, just me against the game, with one exception: Money won for "Hot Cards" is included. Hot cards are special promotions where a getting a specific four of kind is hand-paid an amount equal to the machine pay.

It should be clear that I was playing an excellent choice of games in 1999. The next question must be: was I playing perfect-enough strategy?

Perfect strategy, no. Near perfect, yes. It is doubtful that my skill level is lower than the indicated percentages by more than .02 percent for any of the indicated games. That is, if 100.76 percent is perfect, I’m sure I play above the 100.74 percent level. Since I’m playing a half-dozen different games, it takes a lot of effort to play each game well. I have to occasionally refer to my strategy cards, and I’m constantly computer analyzing oddball hands for each game.

I have the available strategy cards (i.e. by Dancer/Daily, Paymar, Frome and others). I synthesize their information and make my own strategy cards for each game. For the various Deuces Wild games, I have the standard game down pat and only use what I call a "Delta strategy" card for Loose Deuces and other variations. The Delta strategy gives the changes for the particular game over the standard Deuces game. I keep a separate full strategy card for 10/7 Double Bonus, 10/7/80 Double Bonus, and All-American Poker.

More serious than strategy errors that I might make is what I call "mechanical errors." These include sticky buttons on the machine, or missing a low pair, or hitting the adjacent button to the one I really want to hit. I love to play fast machines, and in the heat of the moment, I sometimes discard a low pair and see it flash by on the redeal. Although this is a rare occurrence, it is unsettling. When it happens, I slow down my play. One time, playing Deuces Wild, I discarded a pair of 4s and held only a Deuce. What unfolded before my eyes was instantly heartbreaking, followed by instant exhilaration. The next card that came up was a 4, followed by a Deuce (there goes five of a kind) followed by two more Deuces. So a mistake made missing a pair turned five of a kind into four Deuces (just dumb luck).

When you play a lot of video poker, you have to consider cashback from the casino a significant factor that determines where you play. Cashback comes in two forms. The first type is cash earned proportional to the amount of money you put into the machine. This cash "credit" is automatically accumulated from the slot card reader at the machine, and stored in the casino's players club computer, available for future withdrawal. The percentage return for this cash varies from 0.0093 percent to 0.667 percent, depending on the casino’s slot club policy. Some casinos give zero cash and only give credits towards comps, some give both cash and comp credit, and some give cash or comps.

The other cash that casinos give is in the form of monthly (or periodic) "Bounce Back" coupons that can be redeemed on specific visits. The coupons, sometimes called "welfare checks," are a minimum of $5, average $10, many times are as high as $25, and for high rollers, can be as much as $100. These "nickels and dimes," plus the small percentage cash returns for play, really add up and turn your "losing" play into winning play. How important cashback is, can be seen in the amount of cash I received in 1999. This cashback was $5,955 and more than offset the $1,692 loss I had for the year. The beauty of cashback is that it is always positive. To illustrate how cashback influenced my "results" during the year, look at the graph in Figure 2.

The red graph is a repeat of the win/loss curve shown in Figure 1. The green graph shows the results of adding cash as it was collected to the wins and losses of the red curve. The net result shows that the green curve follows the red curve pretty closely in the first quarter of the year. This is to be expected since very little money is collected during this period, except for some welfare checks. As more welfare checks are collected and some cash withdrawals are made, plus the fact that cashback is always positive, the green curve shows a clear separation from the red curve during the second quarter. By the third and fourth quarters, the green curve really pulls away from the red curve, and the significance of cashback is clearly illustrated.

No discussion about the net results of video poker play would be complete with mentioning jackpot tips. Tips to change persons for hand-pay jackpots are "expected" and an expense of the game. For the year 1999, I paid out $446 in tips to change people for royal flushes and other hand-pays. This is subtracted from my net results, and is included in the green curve of Figure 2, which is slightly lower due to tipping.

In summary, all the skill in the world won't guarantee that you will win during any video poker session. Luck is a big factor. If you don't get good cards, you will be a loser. You have no control over the first five cards dealt to you.

But you do have a choice of what cards to hold. That’s when the skill factor comes into play. Making the right choice of which cards to hold will improve your results on average, no matter what initial cards you are dealt.

Also, you have control over where you play and what machines you play. Your choices of where to play must be based on the best value to you. Cashback, double or triple points or "Hot Card" promotions, comps and other amenities must be considered when making your choice.

Although my video poker playing results end up on the down side, it was a hell of a ride. And cashback, always a plus, thankfully made my results positive. I experienced "the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat."

On the up side, I earned a lot of cashback, ate hundreds of comped meals, and enjoyed many other freebies. There is no other hobby that I know of that provides a mentally stimulating challenge, gives so many benefits, and allows you to make a few bucks along the way.

Index . Behind the Scenes . The Ups and Downs of Video Poker
Winner's Spotlight . Up Front . As Far As I'm Concerned

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